Increased ‘Monsoon Drought’ making Indian Farmers likely victims of Climate Change

In the first part of their Sixth Assessment Report released on August 9, 2021, experts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said that even if a decreasing pattern in rainfall has been observed in the Indian Subcontinent, rainfall will eventually increase in the long-term.

The report further said that the increase in rainfall, however, will not be distributed evenly across the rainy season. Instead, the report said, the country may witness an increase in the frequency of short intense rainy days, and then there could be long spells of no rainfall in between.

‘Rainfalls, floods and droughts will also increase,’ said R Krishnan, one of the co-authors of the report and Executive Director, Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR), Indian Institute of Tropical Research. He further explained that the droughts will occur more because the soil will lose moisture with increased heat leading to more evaporation and a decrease in soil moisture. 

‘Monsoon Drought’ of 2022

In 2022, exactly the above seems to be happening in multiple states of India. The monsoon season this year following a record-breaking, pre-monsoon heatwave in India seems to be ‘erratic’ and ‘problematic’ for the farmers of the country. If we look at the average rainfall till now this year in terms of the monsoon season, the figures are almost ‘normal’ but in actuality, the average seems to be ‘normal’ by the balancing out of two disasters in the form of ‘drought-like conditions’ in areas across the Gangetic plains and ‘severe floods’ in many other parts of the country. 

According to reports, the Gangetic plains have received the least rainfall since 1901 during the June 1-August 20 period but at the same time, rainfall in the rest of the country is the third highest during the same period since record-keeping began in 1901. This contrast best explains the unprecedented situation this year in terms of the ‘difference’. 

Drought-like conditions during the monsoon season have affected farmers across the country, especially the paddy cultivators that have been badly hit in many rice-producing states. Farmers have sown less paddy this Kharif season and the area under paddy cultivation is around 13 percent less than last year, according to reports. Farmers have sown paddy across 23.15 million hectares in comparison to 26.70 million hectares in the previous season.

Northeast India

Assam and Meghalaya recorded the highest June rainfall in 122 years with 858.1mm, breaking the earlier record of 789.5mm recorded in 1966. This was in stark contrast to the deficit rainfall recorded in Assam in the following month of July which coincided with record temperatures in the region as East and Northeast India witnessed its warmest July in 122 years. Between July 1 and 26, Assam recorded 204.5 mm (45% deficit) and Meghalaya 262.5 mm (65% deficit) of rainfall. 

Thus, after severe floods in the month of June, Assam is suddenly facing a drought-like situation in the month of July and August. This is leading to farmers struggling in the agricultural fields across the state as thousands of hectares of Sali rice cultivation are getting damaged because of drought-like conditions. According to local reports, government-sponsored community rice seedling plantations were arranged after the severe floods this year but now there is a lack of requisite irrigation in the fields for the rice seedlings to be transplanted to them because of the drought-like conditions. 

UP and Jharkhand

According to reports, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand are witnessing their worst rainy season in 122 years. Both states are witnessing their driest monsoon season since record-keeping started in 1901. 

Between June 1 and August 14, Jharkhand received a 39% deficit rainfall with IMD data showing 18 districts as ‘rain deficient’. Paddy has only been sown on 5.4 lakh hectares till August 15 as compared to 16.3 lakh hectares for the same period last season. 97 rain-deficient blocks across 15 districts in Jharkhand fulfil the criteria to be defined as drought.

In Uttar Pradesh, between June 1 and August 14, the state received a 44% deficit rainfall with 64 districts receiving less than normal rainfall this monsoon and now staring at drought-like conditions. Paddy farmers have been particularly affected in the state, initially by the delay of rain and then by its deficit and the situation is particularly grim in East UP as the rainfall here has been 50 percent less than the long-period average (LPA).

Bihar

Bihar seems to be reeling under severe drought-like conditions with it receiving a 39% deficit rainfall (385.7mm) in this monsoon season till August 14. In the past 50 years, only once before Bihar had received less than 400mm of rainfall during the monsoon season. According to reports, paddy fields in the state are dry and are developing huge cracks and as of August 15, 78.28 percent of the total target of transplantation of paddy seedlings has been done although saving the same will be a big challenge for the farmers. The state is staring at perhaps the worst-ever drought in the last five decades. 

Flash droughts in India and Climate Change

The erratic monsoon rainfall of India in recent years seems to be a growing trend as even in 2021, ‘the monsoon started off at a healthy 110% of normal levels in June, dipped to 93% in July, dipped further to drought levels of 76% in August, then bounced back to a rare 135% of LPA in September’. The monsoon ‘went on a hiatus’ during the important kharif sowing months of July and August last year too which badly affected the farmers of the country. 

‘Climate change will increase the frequency of flash droughts in India in the future, which will have a negative impact on crop production, irrigation demands, and groundwater abstraction,’ says a study by the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Gandhinagar.

According to the researchers, flash droughts occur due to the rapid depletion of soil moisture and can impact a large region within two-three weeks, severely affecting crop health. 

“We find that flash droughts in India are caused by the monsoon breaks or delayed monsoon and the number of flash droughts will increase in the future,” said Vimal Mishra, Associate Professor of Civil Engineering at IIT Gandhinagar to PTI.

“As air temperature is projected to get warmer significantly in the future due to climate change, monsoon breaks and increased air temperature can exacerbate the flash drought occurrence in India,” Mishra further told PTI.

According to another study published in the journal Nature Communications, during the 1980-2015 period, the majority of the flash drought events in India occurred during the monsoon season primarily between May and September. The study further found that the central, northwest, and northeast regions of the country were mainly affected.