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India is preparing for one of the hottest March months on record, with above-average temperatures expected to persist throughout the month, raising concerns about the impact on agriculture, particularly the maturing wheat crop. According to officials from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), both daytime and nighttime temperatures are forecast to remain significantly higher than normal, a trend that could severely affect crop yields.
A senior IMD official, speaking on condition of anonymity ahead of the department’s official forecast, warned that the weather conditions this month could resemble those of 2022, when a heatwave struck unexpectedly in February and March, causing widespread damage to wheat crops. This year, the situation could be equally dire, with temperatures potentially exceeding 40°C (104°F) in several regions by the end of the month.
The unusual heatwave poses a serious threat to India’s wheat harvest, which has been struggling in recent years due to a combination of adverse weather events. India, the world’s second-largest wheat producer, has been hoping for a bumper harvest in 2025 to avoid relying on expensive imports. After three consecutive years of poor harvests since 2022, the country faces the prospect of a fourth consecutive year of lower yields if the heat persists. Such a scenario could force the government to remove or reduce the current 40% import tax on wheat to ease supply shortages and stabilize domestic prices.
Heat Stress Threatens Wheat and Other Crops
The heatwave, expected to begin in the second week of March, could have a devastating impact on wheat-producing regions across northern and central India. These areas are likely to see temperatures spike by as much as 6°C above normal, according to a second IMD official. The high temperatures could subject wheat, chickpea, and rapeseed crops to heat stress, significantly reducing their growth and yield potential.
These winter crops, which are typically sown between October and December, depend on cooler temperatures throughout their growing cycle. Excessive heat during key stages of development, especially as crops are nearing maturity, could lead to stunted growth, poor grain formation, and higher rates of crop failure. This would mark a sharp departure from the usual weather patterns, where moderate temperatures are critical for optimal crop yields.
Record Prices and Tightening Supplies
As the temperature rises, so do the prices of essential food grains. Domestic wheat prices in India have already surged to record highs this month due to tightening supplies. The combination of lower yields from previous years, the possibility of another poor harvest this season, and the increasing demand for wheat, both domestically and internationally, has placed upward pressure on prices.
The IMD’s forecast for the month includes an alarming prediction of rising daytime temperatures, with several states, especially in the northern and central parts of the country, seeing maximum temperatures well above the 40°C mark by the end of March. This heatwave could significantly exacerbate the ongoing challenges faced by the agricultural sector, which has already been grappling with irregular rainfall, shifting monsoon patterns, and the adverse effects of climate change.
A Larger Crisis Looms
The combination of extreme heat and agricultural stress has set the stage for a potential food security crisis in India. While the government has yet to release its official forecast, the warnings from IMD officials suggest that the severity of the situation could be worse than initially anticipated. For the millions of farmers who rely on stable weather conditions for their livelihoods, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether the country will face a food shortage or the economic fallout from soaring wheat prices.
India’s agricultural sector, already under pressure from rising input costs, changing weather patterns, and water scarcity, faces the added threat of an ongoing heatwave that could bring further hardship to farmers and consumers alike. As the country braces for a sweltering March, the future of India’s wheat production hangs in the balance, and its ability to avoid costly wheat imports will depend on how much damage the heat causes to this critical crop.
With the 2025 harvest season fast approaching, the government, farmers, and consumers are all hoping for a reprieve from the extreme heat, but the outlook remains uncertain.
References:
https://internal.imd.gov.in/press_release/20250228_pr_3758.pdf
https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/south-asia-record-heat-threatens-future-farming
Photo by Dibakar Roy
https://www.pexels.com/photo/aerial-footage-of-a-farmer-plowing-grains-5563381
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