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In the early hours of July 30, 2024, a catastrophic landslide triggered by intense monsoon rainfall ravaged northern Kerala, killing hundreds and leaving behind a trail of destruction. The mountainous district of Wayanad, nestled in the Western Ghats, bore the brunt of the disaster, though the deluge wreaked havoc across the entire northern region of the state. The heavy rains caused widespread flooding, washing away bridges, inundating homes and roads, and plunging large areas into darkness due to power outages.
A newly released report highlights the significant role human-induced climate change played in exacerbating the intensity of the rainfall that triggered these deadly landslides. The research, published by World Weather Attribution, is a collaborative effort by scientists from India, Sweden, the United States, and the United Kingdom. It delves into how climate change has altered the likelihood and severity of such extreme weather events.
Meteorological and environmental triggers
The report reveals that Wayanad, already identified as Kerala’s most landslide-prone district, was particularly vulnerable due to the region’s highly saturated soils—a common condition during the monsoon season. The torrential rainfall on July 29 and 30 amounted to 140 mm, falling on already waterlogged land, which subsequently gave way, causing massive landslides. This event marks the third heaviest one-day rainfall recorded in the region, surpassing similar extreme events in 2019 and 1924.
Role of Climate Change
The study’s findings are a stark reminder of the growing influence of climate change on weather patterns. According to the research, today’s climate, which is 1.3°C warmer than at the start of the industrial era, has increased the likelihood of such intense rainfall events. This particular event is now expected to happen once every 50 years—a frequency likely to increase as global temperatures continue to rise.
The report notes that heavy one-day rainfall events in the region have become approximately 17% more intense over the last 45 years, coinciding with a 0.85°C rise in global temperatures. Looking ahead, climate models predict that if global temperatures increase by 2°C above pre-industrial levels, the intensity of such rainfall events could increase by an additional 4%.
Uncertain future, certain risks
While the increase in extreme rainfall is consistent with broader scientific evidence linking climate change to more intense downpours, the report acknowledges a high degree of uncertainty in the model results due to the complex climate-rainfall dynamics in the small, mountainous study area. The data highlights the urgent need for adaptation strategies to mitigate future risks.
Response and adaptation
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecasted the extreme rainfall and issued state-level warnings. However, these warnings were too broad to pinpoint the exact localities that would be most affected by landslides, highlighting the need for more precise early warning systems. Although slope-specific landslide early warning systems are expensive and challenging to implement, they are vital for effective early action.
Additionally, the report touches on the potential impact of land-use changes in Wayanad on landslide susceptibility. Factors such as quarrying and a dramatic 62% reduction in forest cover may have contributed to the instability of the slopes, making them more prone to landslides when the heavy rains hit.
More showers in store
Kerala’s Wayanad district, already reeling from devastating landslides on July 30 due to heavy rainfall, is now preparing for more severe weather. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued an ‘orange‘ alert for Thursday, indicating potentially dangerous conditions. Kozhikode and Wayanad are expected to experience heavy to very heavy rainfall ranging from 7-20 cm between Wednesday and Thursday. The ‘orange’ alert urges authorities to take precautionary measures, similar to those before the July 29 landslides.
The IMD has forecasted that Kerala will continue to experience heavy rainfall, along with gusty winds and thunder, until August 19.
Hundreds of body parts recovered and identified
Health authorities in Kerala have conducted DNA tests on 401 bodies and body parts recovered from the landslide-affected areas in Wayanad to identify the victims. The extensive search operation, which involved the Army, Special Operations Group, Fire and Rescue Services, Forest Department, and numerous volunteers, resulted in the recovery of 349 body parts belonging to 248 individuals. These included 121 men and 127 women. Reports quote State Revenue Minister K Rajan as having stated that 52 of the recovered bodies or body parts were too decomposed for immediate identification, necessitating further testing. Many people are still waiting for news about their missing family members.
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Banner image: Odisha Police’s X post
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