How Climate Change is getting more real for Indians in 2022

Odia

An unprecedented heat wave across India in 2022 followed by erratic rain patterns during the monsoon season has perhaps made climate change far more real and has made it a topic now being frequently discussed in the country. It seems that the reality of Climate Change has more or less finally dawned upon the people of the country otherwise largely detached from the topic. It all started with the ‘heat season’ arriving unusually early in March 2022 which turned into an unprecedented heat wave that swept major parts of the country. 

The 2022 Heat Wave in India

In 2022, India witnessed its hottest March in 122 years as the March-May 2022 heatwave gripped the country. The country reported 280 heat wave days in 2022 (March 11-May 18) which is the highest in 12 years.

Five states, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat and Haryana,  accounted for 54 percent of the heat waves this year, according to reports. Himachal Pradesh recorded 27 heat wave days, Rajasthan 39 and Madhya Pradesh 38. Also, what was unusual was that the three Himalayan region states- Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Jammu & Kashmir were unusually warm this year.

“India experienced prolonged spells of heatwave during March and April 2022. Hence, the average maximum temperature of March 2022 had been the highest for All India (33. 1 degree C) and Northwest India (30. 7 degree C) and it had been the second highest for Central India (35. 2 degree C)as per the data during the period 1901 to 2022,” said Jitendra Singh, minister of earth sciences, in Lok Sabha. 

The 2022 heatwave is estimated to have led to at least 90 deaths across India and Pakistan. There were also reports about the heatwave impacting wheat yield and other crops, fruits, vegetables and animals in the nine states of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Maharashtra.

Reports emerged that climate change is very likely to be behind this unprecedented heat wave in India. Scientists found that recent heatwaves have been made more likely and intense by human-caused climate change. They concluded that the March-May 2022 heatwave in India was made 30 times more likely by climate change. They conducted ‘attribution’ studies to find out how much climate change had an impact on a specific heatwave.

Climate change is leading to the occurrence of more and more heatwaves with higher intensity. This is happening all across the world, according to the IPCC. Human-induced greenhouse gas emissions have heated up the planet by around 1.2 Celsius since pre-industrial times. The increase in average temperatures has led to record-breaking high temperatures during the summer resulting in extreme heatwaves. 

The ‘erratic’ Indian Monsoon of 2022

Monsoon rainfall across India in 2022 has been erratic with no significant trend but heavy rainfall events have increased throughout the country along with unexpected drought-like situations in some places. Experts have attributed climate change to this situation. 

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that “monsoon rainfall has not shown any significant trend this year but the number of heavy rainfall events has increased and that of light rainfall events has decreased due to climate change.”

WESTERN INDIA

Rajasthan in Western India received 270 mm of rainfall in July which is the highest for the month in nearly 70 years. Eight out of 33 districts in Rajasthan received ‘abnormal’ rainfall this Monsoon season while 17 districts received ‘excess’ rainfall. According to reports, the July rainfall this year is 67% more than the average rainfall of 161.4 mm for July. Western districts of Rajasthan like Sri Ganganagar district alone witnessed 235% more than the average rainfall in July. A 43-year-old record in the district was broken by the rainfall by mid-July and flood-like conditions were reported. 

Neighbouring Gujarat, received half of its average seasonal rainfall in 24 hours on July 11 when from 19% seasonal deficit the situation changed to 106% excess rain in 24 hours. Around 100 people have lost their lives in rain-related incidents in Gujarat and eight districts were completely under water.  Ahmedabad witnessed heavy waterlogging after it received 52.4mm of rainfall as against the normal of 7.9 mm, an excess of 563%, between the mornings of July 10 and July 11. 

Maharashtra witnessed widespread floods after the state collectively recorded 392.7 mm of rainfall in the first half of July which is 142% more than the normal rainfall during the same period (162 mm).

EAST AND NORTHEAST INDIA

Assam in Northeast India witnessed an uncommonly wetter pre-monsoon between March 1 and May 27 when 754.3 mm of rainfall was recorded in the state. This was 48% higher than its average for this period. In the month of May, Assam received 56% more rainfall than normal and the cumulative rainfall in the first 12 days of June was 528.5 mm which was in excess of 109%. 

In the third week of June, Assam, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh recorded 170, 203, and 65% excess rain, respectively. Cherrapunji in Meghalaya received 972 mm of rainfall in 24 hours on June 17, the third-highest in 122 years according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). 

This unprecedented pattern of rainfall led to incessant floods in Assam and its neighbouring states. Nearly 200 people lost their lives in Assam due to floods and landslides this year. Lakhs of people were affected by the floods and thousands of livestock perished in the state, according to reports. 

After record rainfall activity in May and June, East and Northeast India witnessed low rainfall and the ‘warmest’ July in a drastic turn of events that broke 122-year-old records. Continuous dry conditions through July contributed to the extreme heat. The average maximum temperature over the region was 33.75°C which was 2.30 degrees above normal. The region received the lowest July rainfall in 2022 in 122 years which is 44.7% less than normal. It has also been further projected by the IMD that in August and September, East and Northeast India will have deficit rainfall and there are chances of drought-like situations in the region. 

Jharkhand in Eastern India has recorded 258.7mm of rainfall from June 1 till July 31 this year in comparison to the normal rainfall forecast of 508.2mm of rainfall during this period. This has resulted in an overall deficiency of 49% which has pushed the state to a drought-like situation. This is the highest shortfall since 2014, according to a report quoting the officials of the local Meteorological Centre.

SOUTH INDIA 

Telangana in South India has received maximum excess rainfall of 111% as of July 22 if counted from June 1, the official date of the onset of monsoon in India. Tamil Nadu too, in the south, has received large excess monsoon rainfall during this period, according to a Down To Earth report. 

All districts in Telangana have received more than normal rainfall with 30 out of the 33 states recording large excess rainfall as residential areas, roads, etc got flooded in the state. The average rainfall recorded in the State was 80.1 cm against the normal rainfall of 43 cm between July 1 and August 1, a report said. 

On the other hand, Kerala has a 19% deficit as of July 22 in terms of rainfall which has improved recently as the state had a 48% deficit rainfall for June. 

According to the Down To Earth report quoting experts, the reason for this trend is the rapid warming of the Indian Ocean which has led to the temperature difference between the ocean and land to decrease dampening the monsoon rainfall. Land areas are also catching up and the strength of the monsoon depends on a “tug-of-war situation between land and ocean warming”, the report further mentioned. 

NORTH INDIA

Himachal Pradesh in North India witnessed more than 30 flash flood incidents. Seven cloudburst incidents have been reported in the state within a month of the onset of monsoon this year and 133 people have lost their lives because of natural calamities so far, according to a Down To Earth report.  Spiti, a cold desert in Himachal Pradesh has witnessed heavy rainfall and cloudbursts this year which is unusual as the region receives very less rainfall in general, the report added. 

Another report by Outlook mentions that 2,760 cases of forest fires were reported in Himachal Pradesh this year which is the highest ever in the state. The extreme weather change in the mountainous regions of Himachal is further highlighted by the fact that a record 21 days of severe heatwave has been witnessed in the state this year. This resulted in an unprecedented dry spell and 92.4% rain deficiency in March and April in the state.