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A recent study published in the journal Nature Communications has made a significant revelation that farm subsidies in India, which guarantee higher-than-market prices for crops, have contributed to groundwater depletion in the country. Researchers engaged in the study found that these output subsidies have led to a 30% overproduction of water-intensive crops.
In Punjab, rice procurement has caused at least 50% of groundwater decline over 34 years, the study found. Similarly, wheat procurement in Madhya Pradesh, introduced in the late 2000s, has increased the number of dry wells by 5.3 percentage points and deep tube wells by 3.4 percentage points, the study also found. The study emphasizes that poorly designed subsidies can harm the environment and threaten sustainable development.
Depleting groundwater in India
India has experienced a 500% increase in groundwater consumption over the past 50 years, making it one of the largest consumers of groundwater globally. This has led to rapid depletion, with groundwater levels dropping by over 8 meters on average since the 1980s, and by as much as 30 meters in some areas, particularly in northwest India. In central and southern India, the effects are less visible due to the hard-rock aquifer systems, but over-extraction is evident through the rising number of dry and defunct wells.
Output subsidies in India
India’s output subsidies, introduced during the 1960s Green Revolution, guarantee farmers higher prices for water-intensive crops like rice and wheat. Initially aimed at boosting productivity and ensuring food security, as well as providing farmers with stable incomes, the policy was crucial during a time of food scarcity. However, researchers now argue that this approach is outdated and may be contributing to negative outcomes, including groundwater depletion, which threatens long-term food security, farmer incomes, and environmental sustainability.
What does the study show?
The study highlights how increased rice cultivation, driven by government output subsidies, contributes significantly to groundwater stress in India. It also finds that across Indian districts, a standard deviation rise in rice cultivation from 1996 to 2015 is linked to a 5.44% increase in defunct wells. The government’s guarantee to purchase rice and wheat at higher-than-market prices has led to a 30% overproduction of these water-intensive crops. Case studies from Punjab and Madhya Pradesh reveal that in Punjab’s deep alluvial aquifers, subsidies contributed to at least 50% of groundwater decline, with effects becoming fully visible after 6-7 years. In Madhya Pradesh, where hard rock aquifers have low storage capacity, the policy since 2008 has increased dry wells by 5.3% and deep tube wells by 3.4%. The study underscores the need to account for local aquifer characteristics in assessing the impacts of output subsidies on groundwater stress across India.
Groundwater and Climate Change
Groundwater and climate change are closely interconnected. Climate change alters precipitation patterns, leading to more intense droughts and unpredictable rainfall, which increases reliance on groundwater for agriculture and drinking water. As surface water sources dry up, excessive groundwater extraction accelerates, depleting reserves faster than they can be replenished. This overuse not only threatens water security but also exacerbates climate change by contributing to land subsidence and reducing water availability for ecosystems, which impacts carbon sequestration processes. Sustainable groundwater management is, therefore, critical to both climate resilience and environmental stability.
A recent report by global rating firm, Moody’s, highlights how India’s escalating water stress, exacerbated by climate change, rapid industrialisation, and urbanization, threatens its economic stability and resilience posing a significant risk to its sovereign credit strength. Here’s a CFC India report on the topic.
Another study found that in the last two decades, northern India has lost around 450 cubic kilometres of groundwater, with the depletion rate becoming much faster due to climate change. The researcher engaged in the study reportedly said that the ‘amount of water lost from 2002 to 2021 is 37 times the full capacity of India’s largest reservoir, Indira Sagar dam.’
A 2023 study had earlier found that groundwater depletion is a significant contributor to global sea level rise. The study concluded that between 1993 and 2010, people removed almost 2,150 gigatons of groundwater, which caused the planet’s axis to migrate eastward at a rate of 4.36 cm per year. Read more about this here.
References:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-52858-6
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06879-8
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL083525
India’s water crisis exacerbated by Climate Change can affect its credit strength: Moody’s
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