Extreme Global Temperatures in 2024 Nearing Critical 1.5°C Threshold: Call for Urgent Action as COP29 Approaches

The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has released data indicating that the global average temperature from January to October 2024 has been exceptionally high. This makes it highly likely that 2024 will surpass previous records as the hottest year ever. 

The data makes it almost certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record in the ERA5 dataset, dating back to 1940, based on data through October. October 2024 was the second-warmest globally, following October 2023, with an average surface air temperature of 15.25°C, 0.80ºC higher than the 1991-2020 average for the month. The month’s temperature was 1.65ºC above pre-industrial levels, marking the 15th time in 16 months that temperatures exceeded the 1.5ºC threshold set by the Paris Agreement.

As global leaders prepare to meet in Baku, Azerbaijan, for COP29, this new data highlights the persistent trend of rising temperatures. Samantha Burgess, C3S Deputy Director, noted that after 10 months of record-breaking warmth, it is nearly guaranteed that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first to exceed a 1.5ºC increase over pre-industrial levels, underscoring the need for increased action at COP29.

ERA5 data suggests the global temperature in 2024 will likely be over 1.55ºC, compared to 1.48ºC in 2023. For this year not to surpass 2023, average temperatures would need to drop drastically in the remaining months.

In Europe, October 2024 ranked as the fifth warmest on record, with temperatures averaging 10.83ºC, 1.23ºC above the regional October average for 1991-2022. The warmest October was recorded in 2022, with a 1.92ºC anomaly.

October 2024 also saw extreme rainfall across Europe, leading to severe flooding in multiple areas. On October 29, heavy rain caused catastrophic flooding in Spain’s Valencia region, claiming over 200 lives. In Italy’s Emilia-Romagna region, rains beginning on October 16 led to widespread flooding. Above-average precipitation affected parts of northern and western Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula, France, and areas near the Black Sea.

Globally, October precipitation was near average, although certain regions experienced extreme conditions. Heavy rain from Tropical Storm Kong-rey affected southern and eastern China and Taiwan. At the same time, Hurricane Milton brought severe flooding to Florida. Meanwhile, drought continued to impact parts of the U.S., Australia’s central lowlands, and parts of southern Africa.

Antarctic sea ice extent in October 2024 was 17.1 million km², 8% below the 1991–2020 average, the second-lowest October extent since satellite records began, continuing a trend of historically low sea ice levels observed throughout 2023 and 2024.

2024’s temperature milestones emphasize the urgent need to cut emissions from burning coal, oil, and gas, which remain the main drivers of global warming. This year’s record-breaking temperatures—linked to extreme weather events like floods, wildfires, and hurricanes—are a stark reminder of the mounting human, economic, and ecological toll. 

References:

https://climate.copernicus.eu/year-2024-set-end-warmest-record 

Banner Image : Photo by Carlo Martin Alcordo on Pexels