El Niño Roars on: Global Temperatures Poised for New Highs in 2024

By Vivek Saini 

The current El Niño phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is anticipated to persist until April 2024, with its peak expected between November and January, as indicated by the recent update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

This may lead to an additional increase in global average temperatures, contributing to heightened occurrences of extreme weather events like heat waves, wildfires, and droughts. In the context of India, it could result in an above-average winter temperature for most regions and a more turbulent pre-monsoon season in northwest India.

Record-Breaking Global Temperatures in 2023 and El Nino’s Role

El Niño denotes the phase of ENSO characterized by elevated sea-surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean, surpassing the average by more than 0.5 degrees Celsius. This phenomenon typically results in warmer-than-normal temperatures globally and disrupts significant weather systems, including the Indian summer monsoon.

Throughout 2023, the world has consistently experienced temperatures above the norm, propelling the year toward potentially becoming the warmest since pre-industrial times. There is a likelihood that 2023 could mark the first instance of the global average annual temperature temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C threshold outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Notably, the breach of this mark has already occurred in July, August, September, and October. The substantial margins by which these months surpassed previous temperature records have raised concerns among scientists, all of this happening even without El Niño reaching its peak.

Extended El Niño Event and Potential Impact on Global Weather

Leading scientists warn that 2024 may witness another unprecedentedly warm year, with global temperatures projected to rise continually due to increased emissions and the influence of the winter-peaking El Niño weather phenomenon, pushing global mean temperatures to new highs.

The 2023 UN Climate Change Summit in Dubai concluded with a deal urging countries to shift away from fossil fuels. However, there was no consensus on a phase-out plan despite the ongoing impact of fossil fuel emissions contributing significantly to the record-breaking global temperatures experienced this year.

Carlo Buontempo, the director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, highlighted the extraordinary nature of the current year, citing the warmest July on record, followed by record-breaking months in August, September, October, and November, emphasizing the unprecedented nature of these temperature trends.

Expecting an even warmer year in 2024, Gavin Schmidt, a climatologist and director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, notes the anticipation is linked to the initiation of the El Niño event. Schmidt emphasizes that the event will peak towards the end of the current year, underscoring that its magnitude will significantly influence the statistical outcomes for the following year.

Regional Weather Patterns: From Above-Normal Rainfall to Below-Normal Conditions

The peak of El Niño is projected to bring heightened rainfall to specific regions, including the Greater Horn of Africa, the Parana / La Plata basin in South America, Southeast North America, and parts of central and eastern Asia, as outlined in the update. Additionally, an above-average rainfall pattern is anticipated along and just north of the equator in the Pacific. Conversely, areas such as northern South America, Australia, Indonesia, Borneo, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Pacific Islands south of 30 degrees N latitude, and regions immediately north of the wet band may encounter below-normal rainfall.

Raghu Murtugudde, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay, and an emeritus professor at the University of Maryland, reassures that El Niños typically mature during December-January-February, aligning with the annual spring warming in March-April-May in the eastern tropical Pacific. Murtugudde notes that everything is progressing as expected.

Petteri Taalas, the secretary general of the WMO, acknowledges that while El Niño’s impacts on global temperature usually manifest in the year following its development, in this case, the record-high land and sea-surface temperatures since June indicate that 2023 is poised to become the warmest year on record.

References:

1. https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/el-nino-may-remain-till-april-2024-may-push-temperatures-even-higher-wmo-92730
2. https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/wmo-hottest-year-ever-in-next-three-1-5-degrees-celsius-to-be-breached-88037
3. https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/2023-is-poised-to-become-the-hottest-year-with-october-already-setting-a-new-climate-record-92719
4. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/environment/el-nino-intensifying-climate-change-to-make-2024-another-record-hot-year-scientists-warn/3083649#
5. http://community.wmo.int/en/activity-areas/climate/wmo-el-ninola-nina-updates
6. https://www.business-standard.com/amp/world-news/el-nino-event-to-continue-until-apr-2024-influencing-weather-patterns-wmo-123110800861_1.html