Days before COP27, UN says global climate pledges ‘insufficient’

A new report from the United Nations summarizing countries’ national climate plans (NDCs) says that current global climate commitments are insufficient. The report says that though countries are reducing global greenhouse gas emissions to some extent, these efforts are insufficient to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. This report comes at a significant time with just a few days remaining for the UN global climate summit, COP27.

The report highlights that the cumulative climate commitments made by the 193 Parties to the Paris Agreement could lead the world to experience global warming of about 2.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century which is much more than the limit of 1.5 degree Celsius set by the landmark Paris agreement in 2015.

The report also demonstrates that, compared to 2010 levels, current promises will result in an increase in emissions of 10.6% by 2030. This assessment is an improvement over the one from the previous year, which projected that countries were headed for a 13.7% increase in emissions from 2010 levels by 2030.

According to last year’s research, estimated emissions would keep rising through 2030. The research for this year reveals that even though emissions stop rising after 2030, they still do not exhibit the sharp decline that experts believe is required for this decade.

According to the 2018 study from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, CO2 emissions must be reduced by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030. According to the most recent science from the IPCC, which was published earlier this year and utilizes 2019 as a baseline, GHG emissions must be reduced by 43% by the year 2030. In order to avoid the worst effects of climate change, such as more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves, and rainfall, and to fulfil the Paris Agreement target of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, this is essential.

“The downward trend in emissions expected by 2030 shows that nations have made some progress this year,” said Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change in an official press release. “But the science is clear and so are our climate goals under the Paris Agreement. We are still nowhere near the scale and pace of emission reductions required to put us on track toward a 1.5 degrees Celsius world. To keep this goal alive, national governments need to strengthen their climate action plans now and implement them in the next eight years.”

The 193 Parties to the Paris Agreement, including 24 modified or new NDCs submitted during the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow (COP 26), had their national determined contributions (NDCs), also known as climate action plans, reviewed by UN Climate Change up to 23 September 2022. Together, the proposals will cover 94.9% of all greenhouse gas emissions in the world in 2019.

“At the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow last year, all countries agreed to revisit and strengthen their climate plans,” said Stiell. “The fact that only 24 new or updated climate plans were submitted since COP 26 is disappointing. Government decisions and actions must reflect the level of urgency, the gravity of the threats we are facing, and the shortness of the time we have remaining to avoid the devastating consequences of runaway climate change.”

This is UN Climate Change’s second report of this kind, and it offers a crucial update to the first NDC synthesis report from the previous year. Although the report’s overall conclusions are sobering, there are some encouraging signs.

The majority of the Parties who submitted brand-new or revised NDCs have reaffirmed their dedication to lowering or controlling greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 and/or 2030, displaying increasing ambition in combating climate change.

A second UN report on climate change that examined long-term low-emission development policies and examined how various nations intended to achieve net-zero emissions by or about the middle of the century was also published. According to the report, if all long-term initiatives are successfully executed on schedule, these countries’ greenhouse gas emissions may be around 68% lower in 2050 than they are in 2019.

Current long-term strategies (representing 62 Parties to the Paris Agreement) account for 83% of the world’s GDP, 47% of global population in 2019, and around 69% of total energy consumption in 2019. This is a strong signal that the world is starting to aim for net-zero emissions.

The report notes, however, that many net-zero targets remain uncertain and postpone into the future critical action that needs to take place now. Ambitious climate action before 2030 is urgently needed to achieve the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement.

With the UN Climate Change Conference (COP 27) just around the corner, Stiell called on governments to revisit their climate plans and make them stronger in order to close the gap between where emissions are heading and where science indicates they should be this decade.

With 62 Parties to the Paris Agreement, current long-term policies represent 83% of global GDP, 47% of the world’s population, and roughly 69% of global energy consumption in 2019. This is a clear indication that the global community is beginning to work toward net-zero emissions.

The report does point out that many net-zero targets are still up in the air and push necessary current action into the future. Prior to 2030, aggressive climate action is urgently required in order to realize the long-term objectives of the Paris Agreement.

“COP27 will be the world’s watershed moment on climate action,” said Sameh Shoukry, Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs and COP27 President-Designate. “The report from UN Climate Change and before that from the IPCC are a timely reminder for all of us. Raising ambition and urgent implementation is indispensable for addressing the climate crisis. This includes cutting and removing emissions faster and at wider scope of economic sectors, to protect us from more severe adverse climate impacts and devastating loss and damage.”

“The synthesis report is a testimony to the fact that we are off-track on achieving the Paris Climate Goal and keeping the 1.5 degrees within reach,” added Shoukry. “This is a sobering moment, and we are in a race against time. Several of those who are expected to do more, are far from doing enough, and the consequences of this is affecting lives and livelihoods across the globe. I am conscious that it is and should be a continuum of action until 2030 then 2050, however, these alarming findings merit a transformative response at COP27.”