Climate Change Crisis: UK’s agriculture and land use falling behind in emissions targets says report

A new analysis of government data by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) reveals that emissions reduction progress in farming and land use in the United Kingdom needs to catch up. This sector is falling so far behind others that it could become the leading emitter by the mid-2030s. Agriculture and land use have likely surpassed electricity generation to become the fourth-largest emitters, following domestic transport, buildings, and industry this year.

Although woodland creation in England improved last year, reaching 4,550 hectares by March 2024, up from 3,130 hectares the previous year, it still needs to catch up to the target of 7,500 hectares by 2025. Moreover, the percentage of farmers adopting low-carbon farming practices has declined to 48% from a high of 66% in 2020 and 53% in 2023 due to a lack of focus and confusion over available support. The targets are 70% by 2025 and 85% by 2037.

Tom Lancaster, a land food and farming analyst at ECIU, commented on the findings. He noted the irony of farmers facing reduced harvests, revenues, and food self-sufficiency due to extreme wet winters exacerbated by climate change while the sector’s emissions have remained high. “There is a tragic irony in farmers’ harvests, revenues and the UK’s food self-sufficiency falling due to a winter which climate change made wet in the extreme, and the sector’s own emissions remaining high for at least the last decade. The UK’s farms and land could well be releasing more greenhouse gas emissions than its power stations. Look ahead another decade and the UK’s land, including agriculture, could be our number one source of emissions, “he said.

However, he emphasized that farming can both emit and absorb greenhouse gases. “It doesn’t have to be this way. Farming is the only sector that can absorb as well as emit greenhouse gases. This is in part why the new green farming support system is so important because it will help and incentivize farmers to bring down emissions and sequester carbon, while at the same time improving soil health, planting trees and hedgerows that make crops and livestock more resilient to flooding and extreme heat. As the new government considers the upcoming Climate Change Committee progress report, it will need to move quickly to bring forward policies that are capable of making up for lost time. It is clear that the next five years are make or break for the contribution farming and land use can make towards net zero by 2050, given the time it takes for soils and peatlands to recover and trees to grow,” he said.

Recent ECIU analysis estimated that this year’s arable harvest could decrease by up to 20% due to the extremely wet winter, worsened by climate change, which waterlogged soils and flooded farmland, preventing crop planting.

In addition to falling short on woodland creation and regressing in low-carbon farming, efforts to restore England’s peatlands are also behind schedule. The previous government aimed to restore 35,000 hectares of peatland by the end of its term. Still, current trends suggest a shortfall of 14,000-15,000 hectares. This would add an area the size of Cardiff to the missed targets, with missed woodland targets already covering an area the size of Birmingham.

The Carbon Budget Delivery Plan targets 14,000 hectares of new peatland restoration annually from 2025, indicating a need for significant improvement to meet the ultimate goal of 280,000 hectares by 2050.

The fourth target area for reducing land use and agriculture emissions is planting energy crops like miscanthus and short rotation coppice. Recent data shows 12,560 hectares were used for these crops in 2023, a marginal increase from previous years. There is still a long way to go to meet the 2030 target of 9,600 hectares of new biomass crops per year, rising to 15,000 hectares annually by 2035.

Given the lack of progress and current policy gaps, agriculture and land use could become the largest emitting sector by around 2036, as emissions from other sectors decline due to policies like the Zero Emissions Vehicles mandate and the Clean Heat Market Mechanism.

Reference: https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/2024/farming-and-land-could-be-uks-largest-source-of-emissions-in-little-more-than-a-decade 

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