Physical Address
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CLAIM
The rise in recent wildfire incidents is not caused by global warming.
FACT
Global warming is worsening/increasing wildfires as high temperatures have dried up vegetation and soil which in turn is acting as fuel for fires leading to an unprecedented rise of wildfire incidents in the world both in terms of numbers and intensity.
WHAT THEY SAY
Climate change deniers are saying that global warming or climate change has got nothing to do with the rise in wildfire incidents. They are saying that it is a lack of proper forest management by authorities. Others are saying that wildfires are completely normal and natural phenomena. Many others blame it on arsonists. We came across multiple Twitter posts with such claims. One such Twitter post:
WHAT WE FOUND
Many countries have witnessed an unprecedented rise in the number of wildfire incidents in recent years, especially in 2022. In the European Union, since the beginning of 2022, the total number of wildfire incidents is almost four times the 15-year average for the same period, reported CNN. It has been calculated that 1926 wildfires have happened in the EU nations this year up to July 23 compared to 520 wildfires, average for the same period of the year from 2006 to 2021.
In India, a 10-fold rise in intense forest fires happened from 2000 to 2019. It has been found that the intensity and frequency of forest fires have increased significantly in the last decade or so. According to the study, ‘Managing Forest Fires in a Changing Climate’, by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) the number of months in which forest fires generally occur also increased in the last two decades or so. More than 62 percent of Indian states are prone to high-intensity forest fires and Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Maharashtra are the most prone, the study found.
HEATWAVES AND INCREASING WILDFIRES
European Union’s record-breaking number of wildfire incidents in 2022 has happened amid Europe’s record-breaking heatwave this year. Many European regions witnessed all-time high temperatures including the UK where for the first time in history, the temperatures touched 40.2°C.
According to a National Geographic article, hot and dry conditions during heatwaves help fires spread at a faster rate and also burn longer and with more intensity. Warmer air temperatures dry the forests and other vegetation by soaking up water. Intense record-breaking heat waves can cause major crisping of burnable material that can ignite easily. When ignition happens, even if the reason is natural, the chances of it turning into a big fire are much higher now with climate change.
“The hotter, drier conditions right now, it just makes (fires) far more dangerous,” Copernicus senior scientist Mark Parrington said to Reuters.
According to a study (Renata Libonati et al 2022) that assessed the role of compound drought and heatwave events on the unprecedented 2020 wildfires in the Pantanal (Natural region in South America), ‘…similarly to other areas of the globe, the influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks contributed decisively to the simultaneous occurrence of dry and hot spells (HPs), exacerbating fire risk. The ideal synoptic conditions for strong atmospheric heating and large evaporation rates were present, in particular during the HPs, when the maximum temperature was, on average, 6 °C above the normal.’
The 2022 HEATWAVE AND FOREST FIRES IN INDIA
In 2022, India witnessed its hottest March in 122 years as the March-May 2022 heatwave gripped India and Pakistan. The country reported 280 heat wave days in 2022 (March 11-May 18) which is the highest in 12 years. The hot season arrived unusually early and in an unprecedented way affecting a large part of India’s north-west and this coincided with an unusually large number of forest fire incidents this year.
According to a Down To Earth report, ‘there have been fires in Rajasthan’s Sariska Tiger Reserve, Odisha’s Similipal Wildlife Sanctuary, Madhya Pradesh’s Ladkui jungles in Sehore district and the forest areas of the Majhgawan region of Satna district and the Perimalmalai Peak near the Kodaikanal hills of Tamil Nadu’s Dindigul district before the end of March 2022.’
These forest fires like the one that happened at Rajasthan’s Sariska Tiger Reserve were unseasonal, with high temperatures helping to the spread of the fire.
“The recent incident at Sariska forest reserve was the fourth forest fire in that week. Earlier, forest fires would take place during the summer months, that is between May and June. Now, during spring, between March and May, because of climatic changes, we have started seeing many more forest fires. This means the duration that forest fires could take place was two to three months earlier, but it is now nearly six months,” said the lead author of the report Managing Forest Fires in a Changing Climate, Abinash Mohanty to the Indian Express.
Himachal Pradesh recorded 2,763 incidents of forest fires in 2022 from April 1 to June 30 which is reportedly the highest since 2007. As per state IMD data, there was 95% deficient rainfall in March which is the highest since 2002. Also, a Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) report based on IMD data revealed that the state witnessed 27 heatwave days, the third highest in the country after Rajasthan (39) and Madhya Pradesh (38).
CLIMATE CHANGE AND HEATWAVES
Climate change is leading to the occurrence of more and more heatwaves with higher intensity. This is happening all across the world, according to the IPCC. Human-induced greenhouse gas emissions have heated up the planet by around 1.2 Celsius since pre-industrial times. The increase in average temperatures has led to record-breaking high temperatures during the summer resulting in extreme heatwaves.
Scientists have found that recent heatwaves have been made more likely and intense by human-caused climate change. It has also been found that days recording over 40°C have become ten times more likely in the UK because of the rising global temperatures. Also, scientists have concluded that the March-May 2022 heatwave in India and Pakistan was made 30 times more likely by climate change. They have conducted ‘attribution studies’ to find out how much climate change had an impact on a specific heatwave.
“On average on land, heat extremes that would have happened once every 10 years without human influence on the climate are now three times more frequent,” said ETH Zurich climate scientist Sonia Seneviratne to Reuters.
Itís nearly impossible to find experienced people on this subject, but you sound like you know what youíre talking about! Thanks