Are Global Climate Pledges credible? How is India faring?

The last few years have seen catastrophic flooding, droughts and wildfires wreaking havoc across nations as a result of climate change. The IPCC report published in 2021 clearly states that the role of human influence on the climate system is undisputed but, it also shows that human actions still have the potential to limit climate change. To this effect, different countries of the world are making pledges to limit emissions. But questions arise about the credibility of these crucial climate pledges.

829 climate negotiators and scientists from across 150 countries were interviewed as a part of a study conducted to check the credibility of these pledges made by different nations to the landmark Paris Agreement. This study claims to be the largest and most diverse sample of climate policy elites ever polled systematically for their insights into climate policy.

The Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement is an international treaty on climate change, adopted by 196 Parties at COP 21 in Paris, on 12 December 2015 and entered into force on 4 November 2016. The goal of the Paris Agreement is to achieve a climate-neutral world by mid-century by limiting global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels.

The Paper

The paper by researchers at the University of California at San Diego was published in Nature Climate Change. The respondents were asked to rate member nations—their own country included—to gauge pledge ambition, which is how much each country has pledged to do to mitigate global warming, in comparison to what they feasibly could do, given their economic strength, to avert a climate crisis. They also were asked to evaluate the degree to which nations have pledges that are credible. 

The paper states that among India, the US, China, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Australia and Brazil — and the European Union, the parties with bold and non-binding climate commitments showed more credibility and are working towards greater change than the ones with less ambitious but binding pledges contrasting theoretical warnings of a trade-off between ambition and credibility. The findings state that the quality of national political institutions is the largest explanator of the variation in credibility. It also states that economic factors, such as the costs and benefits of controlling emissions, are statistically unimportant in explaining the credibility of national pledges to cooperate.

How is India faring?

Of the eight countries plus the EU which were selected for being most relevant to climate mitigation policy, Europe’s goals have been rated as the most ambitious and credible. Following Europe are China, Australia and South Africa. India ranks fifth in terms of credibility. India is followed by Russia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil and the US.

India ranks fourth in the ambition category which is led by Europe as well. China ranks second while South Africa ranks third. Australia, Brazil, Russia, the United States and Saudi Arabia follow India in the rankings. 

“India has been pretty careful not to make bold pledges far beyond what the Indian government is confident it can deliver,” the study’s lead author David Victor, a professor of industrial innovation at the University of California San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy and co-director of the Deep Decarbonization Initiative told Down To Earth, recently. The lead author also added that the decision is reflected in the country’s ranking. 

India’s UN targets

India announced at the 2021 climate conference in Glasgow that it aims to generate 50% of its energy requirement through renewable energy by 2030. Its commitment to achieving net zero by 2070 is very clear in the ambitious update to its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). India aims to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% by 2030, from the 2005 level, and achieve about 50% cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030. A mass movement ‘LIFE’– ‘Lifestyle for Environment’ as a key to combating climate change” has been added to the NDC to promote a healthy and sustainable lifestyle. 

The updated NDC also lists that India aims to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030. India also aims to adapt to climate change by enhancing investments in development programmes in sectors vulnerable to climate change, particularly agriculture, water resources, the Himalayan region, coastal regions, health and disaster management.

Union Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav has recently been quoted as saying that India has adopted a leadership role in the fight against climate change with its climate actions exceeding its moral or legal responsibility. A report said that he had stated that on the path to achieving net zero by 2070, most of the growth in the energy demand in India will have to be met with low-carbon energy sources. 

Targets more ambitious at home but a history of missed goals 

However, it has been found that while India’s commitments to climate targets at the global level (United Nations) aim low but its policies are more ambitious at home. This is a reflection of a reluctance among large developing economies like India to accelerate climate action and mitigation without finance from developed countries. 

India presently meets about a quarter of its electricity demand with nonfossil energy and its national policies at home, clearly reveal the intention of tripling nonfossil electricity capacity to 500 gigawatts by 2030. 

At the same time, the fact remains that India has set and missed ambitious renewable energy targets. This too might be at play while setting climate targets at the UN level which have been often termed as India ‘aiming low’.

Reports suggest that India will fail to reach its set goal of reaching 100 gigawatts of solar and 60 gigawatts of wind power capacity by 2022. India will miss the solar target by 27%, mainly due to insufficient rooftop solar installations in the country.