Advancing Climate Science: India’s New Earth System Model Initiative

By Aayushi Sharma

The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), based in Pune, India, has undertaken a significant initiative aimed at constructing an Earth System Model (ESM) specifically tailored for the precise detection, attribution, and projection of alterations in the South Asian Monsoon. To achieve this ambitious objective, the institute has meticulously transformed a cutting-edge seasonal prediction model, known as the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), into a comprehensive climate model conducive for conducting prolonged climate simulations. This adaptation ensures that the model’s capabilities align seamlessly with the complexities inherent in studying and forecasting the intricate dynamics of the South Asian monsoon system.

This groundbreaking initiative aims to:

(a) enhance climate forecasting capabilities and 

(b) anticipate climate repercussions. 

Forecasts generated by the model will offer dependable insights into global and regional climate patterns, including the crucial Indian monsoon rainfall. By assimilating diverse elements of the Earth system—ranging from the atmosphere and oceans to landmasses, ice caps, and biospheres—the model will ascertain climate variations across various scenarios. This endeavour aligns with the government’s commitment to tackling climate change head-on, reflecting a concerted effort to confront environmental challenges.

What is the newly designed Earth System Model? How does it work?

The Earth system model (ESM) represents a pioneering open-source software engineered to seamlessly incorporate the intricate dynamics among the atmosphere, ocean, land, ice, and biosphere. 

Objective: Its fundamental objective is to extrapolate the prevailing conditions of regional and global climate across diverse scenarios. Harnessing the principles of numerical weather prediction and data assimilation, the ESM emerges as a potent tool for precise climate change prognostication. As elucidated by officials from the Ministry of Earth Sciences, the ESM’s robust framework enables accurate predictions by simulating the interplay among Earth’s various subsystems, thus offering invaluable insights into the changing climate landscape.

At its core, the Earth system model functions as a sophisticated simulator, adapting interdependencies between atmospheric processes, oceanic currents, terrestrial ecosystems, polar ice dynamics, and biological phenomena. By encapsulating these multifaceted interactions within its computational framework, the ESM facilitates a comprehensive understanding of the Earth’s climate system. This holistic approach allows researchers to delve into the intricate nuances of climate dynamics and predict how they might evolve under diverse scenarios, ranging from shifting greenhouse gas concentrations to alterations in land use patterns.

Benefits of the new model:

• One of the defining attributes of the ESM lies in its open-source architecture, which fosters collaboration and innovation within the scientific community. By providing unrestricted access to its source code and underlying algorithms, the ESM empowers researchers worldwide to contribute enhancements, refine existing modules, and tailor the model to address specific research questions or regional climate concerns. This collaborative ethos not only accelerates scientific progress but also ensures the continual refinement and validation of the ESM’s predictive capabilities.
• The IITM-ESMv2 integrates interactive ocean biogeochemistry and ecosystem processes, enabling examination of climate variability and change effects on marine primary productivity and ocean carbon cycle mechanisms.
• It accurately depicts polar sea-ice distribution, a vital aspect of the climate system. Compared to its predecessor, the IITM-ESMv1, which notably underestimated sea-ice cover, the updated version provides a more realistic representation of the time-mean distribution of polar sea-ice.
• The CCCR at IITM is dedicated to enhancing assessments of changes in Indian monsoon precipitation, recognizing its pivotal role in regional socio-economic activities. With the Indian Monsoon being crucial, efforts at CCCR, IITM are concentrated on improving simulations of time-mean monsoon precipitation over South Asia. This entails refining representations of both global climate and regional monsoon phenomena within the IITM-ESMv2. This focused approach aims to provide more reliable evaluations of how Indian monsoon precipitation may evolve under climate change, crucial for informed decision-making and adaptation strategies.
• Moreover, the ESM’s integration of numerical weather prediction and data assimilation techniques endows it with a high degree of predictive accuracy. This data-driven approach enhances the reliability of climate projections and enables policymakers to make informed decisions regarding mitigation and adaptation strategies in the face of impending climate change.

References:

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-developing-a-new-earth-system-model-to-improve-forecasts-track-climate-crisis-impacts-101707502925985.html

https://rcc.imdpune.gov.in/clim_projection.php

Image sources:

http://cccr.tropmet.res.in/home/index.jsp

http://cccr.tropmet.res.in/home/clim_esm_one.jsp