What Are the 6 Ways Climate Change Will Reshape the US by 2100?

By Vivek Saini 

Climate change is not just a concern for the future; its impacts are evident today. The United States is already witnessing the consequences, including extreme forest fires, rising temperatures, and prolonged droughts. Scientists attribute these changes to the primary culprit: the burning of fossil fuels, which releases greenhouse gasses like carbon dioxide and methane. These emissions accumulate in the atmosphere, trapping heat by absorbing sunlight reflected off the Earth’s surface.

Unfortunately, the situation is expected to worsen. Individuals born in 2020 are projected to face more climate-related hazards in their lifetime compared to those born in 1965. The recent Fifth National Climate Assessment from the U.S. Global Change Research Program warns that without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the U.S. will confront increasingly severe climate threats. The assessment explores different scenarios and predicts a temperature increase in the U.S. between 3 and 13 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century, depending on our choices regarding greenhouse gasses. The impact of climate change on our daily lives is anticipated to intensify by 2100, with more severe consequences if emissions continue unchecked.

1. More extreme heat waves

This summer, approximately one-third of the U.S. population received heat advisories due to heat waves. These abnormal periods of hot weather, lasting two or more days with temperatures exceeding 103 degrees Fahrenheit, are occurring more frequently than ever, averaging six per year and becoming more intense and prolonged. The heat wave season has extended by about 49 days compared to the 1960s, particularly affecting cities where concrete exacerbates heat absorption, making them warmer and less able to cool off.

In June, Southern states experienced the highest heat-related emergency department visits in five years. Certain groups, including children, older adults, individuals with disabilities, and those lacking access to air-conditioned spaces, are particularly vulnerable to heat-related health issues. By 2100, even with limited current emissions to meet global climate goals set in the 2015 Paris Agreement, the U.S. is expected to face three to ten times more frequent hot days reaching dangerous conditions.

2. Rising sea levels

Coastlines have experienced increased flooding since the 1950s, with the East Coast being particularly affected. Sea level rise, exacerbated by climate change, intensifies flooding during seasonal high tides and storms. The Southeast, spanning from North Carolina to Florida, has witnessed significant land loss due to sea level rise, with about 20 square miles converted to open water between 1996 and 2011—equivalent to two-thirds the size of Manhattan.

Approximately 40 percent of Americans residing near the coast face heightened risk. Flood-related consequences include submerged streets, malfunctioning storm drains, deteriorating infrastructure, and the loss of homes.

Rising sea levels, an ongoing trend, will likely increase the frequency of flooding. Projections suggest a potential two-foot average sea level rise along U.S. coasts by 2100 due to past emissions, with more extreme scenarios predicting up to seven feet if emissions continue unchecked. A three-foot rise could jeopardize the homes of 4.2 million people, particularly impacting the Southeastern U.S., where Florida faces severe risks. Georgia, South Carolina, and Louisiana could have over 10 percent of their population at risk by 2100, according to specific flood models.

3. More wildfires

While naturally occurring wildfires are crucial in maintaining ecosystem health, climate change has amplified their size, destructiveness, and difficulty to control. The prolonged wildfire season, a consequence of climate change, results in more frequent and destructive wildfires, posing threats to homes and ecosystems.

Beyond the immediate fire zone, wildfire smoke can extend over large areas. For instance, wildfire smoke in Canada significantly impacted air quality across the Midwest and Northeast, leading to unprecedented air quality alerts this past summer. Exposure to wildfire smoke contributes to a rise in emergency department visits, hospital admissions, and deaths related to respiratory ailments.

Looking ahead, by 2100, catastrophic fire events are projected to increase globally by up to 50 percent. This heightened risk includes regions not traditionally prone to wildfires, emphasizing the far-reaching consequences of climate change on wildfire dynamics.

4. Less food security

Over the past three decades, the growing season, characterized by the days suitable for plant growth, has steadily increased. While this could benefit certain crops in specific regions, the warming trend is anticipated to impact significant crop yields negatively. The rise in “killing-degree days,” where temperatures become too high for crops to thrive, is a concern. Additionally, warming may foster the growth of invasive species harmful to crops, while climate-induced limitations on the habitat range of pollinators could disrupt their synchronization with plant blooms. Since 35 percent of food crops, including apples, blueberries, tomatoes, and pumpkins, rely on pollinators, this desynchronization has widespread consequences.

The next decade is expected to see adverse effects on crop yields across the U.S. due to increased heat and changing rainfall patterns. Projections indicate a 5 percent decrease in corn yields in Iowa, soybean yields in Minnesota, and wheat yields in Kansas compared to scenarios without climate change effects.

Warming temperatures, ocean acidification, and algal blooms also threaten fisheries. Species like cod are shifting northward and to deeper waters in response to warmer oceans, while others like lobster, oysters, clams, and mussels face population decline risks. Sea scallops, a vital Northeastern fishery resource, are projected to decrease by over 50 percent by 2100 in a high climate scenario, as ocean acidification, stemming from climate change, limits their growth and survival.

5. Wider ranges of diseases

Climate change is causing a shift in the distribution and prevalence of vector-borne diseases like Lyme disease and West Nile virus. Warmer temperatures and shorter winters create a more suitable climate for the ticks and mosquitoes that transmit these diseases, leading to a geographical shift in their favorable habitats—now encompassing previously unsuitable areas.

Tick-borne diseases, constituting approximately 80 percent of reported vector-borne diseases in the U.S., have notably increased over the past two decades. Ticks are expanding to new regions, and their seasonal activity extends, resulting in prolonged human exposure. The distribution of mosquitoes, carriers of West Nile virus, dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, can also be affected by climate change.

Future projections indicate the Northeastern expansion of West Nile virus over the next 50 years due to ongoing warming trends. These changes underscore the dynamic impact of climate change on the spread of vector-borne diseases and the associated public health challenges.

6. Mass migration

While people may not explicitly cite climate change as their reason for moving, the impact of climate change on migration is often underestimated. Residents increasingly opt to relocate from disaster-prone regions or are forced to move and face challenges returning home. The concept of “climate abandonment zones” is emerging, referring to places that have experienced population loss due to climate change. Between 2000 and 2020, 3.2 million individuals relocated from specific areas primarily due to flooding, highlighting the tangible consequences of climate-induced migration.

Certain regions, particularly those at higher elevations or cooler temperatures, may become more appealing due to climate considerations. While migration can be a natural response, there is a distinction between voluntary relocation and forced displacement. Wealthier individuals often have greater mobility, enabling them to choose to move and, over the long term, afford residences in areas less vulnerable to climate impacts. This underscores the potential for climate-induced disparities in migration patterns and the ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions.

References:

1. https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/
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15. https://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/hubs/northwest/topic/northwest-pollinators-and-climate-change
16. https://www.edf.org/climate-change-will-slow-us-crop-yield-growth-2030
17. https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/15/
18. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-07/forget-managed-retreat-us-climate-migration-will-be-chaos
19. https://firststreet.org/press/press-release-39-million-properties-are-significantly-overvalued-due-to-artificially-suppressed-home-insurance-costs/

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