After warmest February in 122 years, sweltering summer to arrive early for India in 2023

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) declared that India has just experienced its warmest February in 122 years. The country’s temperature was on average 0.28 degrees Celsius higher than typical, with some places seeing readings as high as 2-4 degrees Celsius. This is probably a result of climate change, and the warming trend might continue in the upcoming years. 

All around the nation, notably in the northern states of Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan, a spike in temperature has been recorded. In February, Delhi saw temperatures 5–6°C above average with 16.2°C, or 3.5°C above average being the city’s recorded minimum temperature while the maximum was 34°C, which is 6°C above average.

IMD has stated that there is a good chance that most of northeast, east and central India, and some areas of northwest India will have maximum temperatures above normal from March to May. With the exception of south Peninsular India, where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are predicted, IMD is forecasting warm evenings with above-normal minimum temperatures for most of the nation during this period.

Likely causes

Due to a shortage of western disturbances in February, India has been experiencing less rainfall. These storms, which have their origins in the Mediterranean, send rain to a number of locations, including the subcontinent. This is related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climatic phenomenon that modifies global weather through variations in the Pacific Ocean’s water temperature. The decrease in this winter monsoon, which typically keeps the nation cold during the winter, is one of the causes of this rising trend. 

“If you see, the entire northern hemisphere has been dry and warm in February. There was a large deficiency in rainfall which led to clear skies and higher solar insolation. An anticyclone was also persisting over the Arabian Sea which led to the subsidence of warm air temporarily over the western region. This led to exceptional warming,” SC Bhan, head, hydromet and agromet advisory services at IMD said while addressing a virtual press conference. Bhan added that it was too early to forecast the impact of El Nino conditions on the monsoon season. “April would be a better time to forecast the impact of El Nino on the monsoon. We will issue a forecast mid-April.”

Since India’s cities are producing more and more heat as a result of the concrete jungle effect, the country’s rapid industrialization and urbanization also contribute to the warming trend. 

“We are seeing that progressively, over the years, the winter period is getting shorter but more intense and the summertime is becoming more grueling as well as more prolonged. While local factors do play a role, climate change is also impacting temperature recordings. These extreme weather recordings are impacting urban centres the most,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president (meteorology and climate change) Skymet Weather Services told The Hindustan Times.

Why should this be taken seriously?

This news is troubling because it has broad ramifications for India- one of the nations most exposed to the consequences of climate change worldwide. 

Agriculture, which is a key component of India’s economic and social institutions, is anticipated to be negatively impacted by the trend towards a rise in temperatures. After declaring that it was aiming for record shipments that year, India had to prohibit wheat exports in May 2022 as a blistering heat wave reduced production and domestic prices rose to all-time highs.

According to the International Food Policy Research Institute’s World Food Policy Report 2022, climate change could cause 90 million Indians to be hungry by 2030 as a result of decreased agricultural output and disruptions in the food supply chain.

The nation is also home to some of the biggest cities in the world, which will experience an increase in heatwaves, water shortages, and other climatic issues as the temperatures increase. Since rising temperatures produce more smog and other pollutants, the warming trend is also anticipated to result in a marked increase in air pollution. 

The upward trend in recorded daytime temperatures is not unique to this year. Forecasters claim that numerous times in the past ten years, maximum temperatures in the month of February in the region have exceeded the threshold of 30 degrees Celsius. For instance, the high temperature exceeded 30 degrees Celsius seven times in February 2021.

According to a study published in the medical journal The Lancet, between 2000-2004 to 2017-2021, a span of around 20 years, heat-related deaths increased by 55% in India. India witnessed an unprecedented heat wave in 2022 between March and April. The report further said that this heat wave was 30 times more likely to have happened because of climate change.

“Exposure to extreme heat affects health directly, exacerbating underlying conditions such as cardiovascular and respiratory disease, and causing heat stroke, adverse pregnancy outcomes, worsened sleep patterns, poor mental health, and increased injury-related death,” the report noted. 

According to the report, globally the number of heat-related deaths surged by 68% between 2000-2004 and 2017-2021, and vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and young children, experienced 3.7 billion more heatwave days in 2021 than they did annually in 1986-2005.

What is being done to mitigate the effects?

While there is still much to be done, the Indian government is making efforts to lessen the effects of climate change. The nation has set a goal of producing 40% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030, but achieving this goal will need large investments in clean energy infrastructure. Also, the government is promoting energy efficiency and lowering emissions from the transportation industry, a significant source of air pollution. 

However, more must be done to mitigate the effects of climate change and prevent further warming. India, along with other countries, must take collective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote sustainable development. Citizens also have a role to play, by adopting eco-friendly practices such as reducing energy consumption and using public transport.

The warmest February in India in 122 years is a glaring example of how climate change affects the nation. India needs cooperation from the international community in its fight against climate change since its success will have a significant impact on the rest of the globe.