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The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announced on January 27, 2026, that the Doomsday Clock has been set to 85 seconds to midnight, the closest its hands have ever come to symbolic apocalypse. The Clock—created in 1947 by Einstein, Oppenheimer, and their Manhattan Project colleagues—uses the metaphor of a countdown to midnight to warn how close humanity is to self-made disaster. The Bulletin’s Science andSecurity Board ,a panel of experts in nuclear risk, climate, technology, and biosecurity, meets annually to evaluate global threats and move the clock’s minute hand accordingly. As the 2026 press release explains, the Board called for urgent action on nuclear arms, artificial intelligence, and biological threats—but also highlighted the “continuing climate crisis” as a major factor in driving the Clock ever closer to midnight.
Who Sets the Clock
Each year the Clock’s time is determined by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board in consultation with its Board of Sponsors, a group of international leaders including eight Nobel laureates. This elite team reviews the latest science and geopolitical developments-thousands of pages of research-before jointly announcing any change. In practice, the Board draws on expertise in nuclear policy, climate science, information technology, and health security to gauge “how close we are to destroying our world with dangerous technologies of our own making.” Originally, at its 1947 debut, the Clock only warned of a US–Soviet nuclear arms race. Today the Bulletin emphasizes that climate change, unregulated AI, and cyber and biological risks must all be factored into this global indicator. The clock became a Bulletin icon in 1947 to reflect nuclear threats. Today the clock also accounts for human-made threats of climate change, disruptive technology, and biosecurity.
Expanding Threats Beyond Nuclear
While the early Cold War era Clock focused on nukes, it now tracks a broader suite of dangers. The SASB’s 2026 statement explicitly names climate change alongside nuclear proliferation, artificial intelligence, and biothreats as core threats. As the new press release puts it, major factors in 2026 included “growing nuclear weapons threats, disruptive technologies like AI, multiple biological security concerns, and the continuing climate crisis.” In other words, what was once primarily a barometer of a nuclear standoff now reflects an array of “dangerous technologies of our own making.” This shift dates back decades: the Bulletin first began “considering possible catastrophic disruptions from climate change” in its clock-setting deliberations in 2007. Since then, climate data have regularly influenced the setting, and in 2026 the Board’s decision was shaped by alarming climate indicators as much as by geopolitics.More details can be reached here
Setting 85 Seconds to Midnight
In announcing the new time, Bulletin president Alexandra Belldeclared, “The Doomsday Clock’s message cannot be clearer. Catastrophic risks are on the rise, cooperation is on the decline, and we are running out of time.” With that warning, she and SASB chair Daniel Holz moved the Clock’s hand from 89 seconds in 2025 to 85 seconds before midnight. Holz lamentedthat last year’s call for urgent action was largely ignored: instead, “the opposite has happened,” he said. Major powers have grown more confrontational: Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, India and Pakistan have exchanged fire, and U.S. andIsraeli strikes have targeted Iranian nuclear sites. In parallel, nuclear arsenals are expanding, with New START set to lapse in early 2026 and explosive test talks having resumed. At the same time, the Bulletin notes, global climate and other disasters have intensified, even as international cooperation has frayed. As the statement bluntly puts it, major countries “have instead become increasingly aggressive, adversarial, and nationalistic,” undermining the very global collaboration needed to fight all existential risks: from nuclear war to climate change. Daniel Holz warned that “a world splintering into ‘us versus them’ will leave all of humanity more vulnerable.” In short, the Bulletin says failures of leadership are pushing the Clock’s hand ever closer to midnight.
A Warming World
Science now shows that the climate is heating up faster than ever, and these changes are destabilizing societies worldwide. Recent data underscore the danger: in 2024 the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere hit 150% of preindustrial levels, while global average temperature reached the warmest on record. The World Meteorological Organization confirms that 2024 was likely the first year with more than 1.5°C of warming, the highest in human history. This record heat did not stay on paper—it fueled unprecedented extremes. As NOAA and WMO reports note, more intense heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, and deluges rolled across every continent, causing “massive economic and social upheavals.” For example, Europe endured its third year in four with over 60,000 heat-related deaths.Monsoon floods, superstorms, and glacier melts swelled rivers and lakes, driving millions from their homes: recent floods inBrazil and the Congo Basin together displaced on the order of a million people. Parched soils and failing harvests have hit large regions of Africa, South America, and Asia.
These climate impacts are not just environmental trivia—theyundermine economies and food systems in ways that cascade through society. The Bulletin notes that as higher temperatures “energized” the water cycle, droughts and deluges “hopscotched around the globe,” with record rains in Brazil displacing over half a million people and droughts afflicting Peru, the Amazon,and much of Africa. Millions more have suffered through successive disasters. A UNHCR report highlighted that “weather-related disasters have caused some 250 million internal displacements” over the past decade. As UN Refugee Chief Filippo Grandi warned, “Extreme weather is … destroying homes and livelihoods, and forcing families—many who have already fled violence—to flee once more.” In short, climate disasters are quietly fueling waves of migration andhumanitarian strain-often hitting the poorest and most fragile communities hardest.
Climate as a Threat Multiplier
Experts emphasize that climate change acts like a threat multiplier, compounding existing social and political stresses. A Pentagon report put it bluntly: climate impacts on water, food,and habitats will “aggravate stressors abroad such as poverty, environmental degradation, political instability, and socialtensions.” In practice this means that a region suffering drought or crop failure is more likely to erupt in conflict or see refugee flows, which in turn can destabilize neighbors. WMO and UN studies echo this: climate shocks often coincide with areas of conflict or weak governance, deepening crises rather thansparking them from scratch. For example, by 2040 about 65 countries, many already hosting refugees, are expected to face extreme climate hazards, putting additional strain on fragile borders and resource sharing. The Bulletin explicitly links this dynamic to geopolitics: SASB chair Holz noted that risingautocracies and nationalist rhetoric operate as a “threat accelerant,” making it harder to address nuclear, climatic, and other dangers.
At the same time, climate-fueled scarcities can inflame geopolitical tensions. Competing claims over water and food, or sudden mass migrations, have in recent years spurred nationalist or militarized responses. The Bulletin points out that nations are increasingly focusing on rivalries instead of cooperation: the U.S. and China spar over technology, Russia and NATO are in renewed standoffs, and even climate diplomacy has stalled.Recent U.N. climate summits failed to mandate a phase-out of fossil fuels, and in some countries governments have “essentially declared war on renewable energy” while gutting climate policy. All of these trends-nationalism, weakened institutions, and climate stress—feed on each other to erode global security. As Reuters reported, Alex Bell described a “global failure in leadership” where “no matter the government, a shift towards neo-imperialism and an Orwellian approach to governance will only serve to push the clock toward midnight.”
Pulling Back from Midnight
Despite the grim assessment, Bulletin experts stress that catastrophe is not inevitable. Their 2026 statement outlines actions that could pull the clock back: for instance, renewed arms-control talks between the U.S. and Russia, strict multilateral guidelines on AI and genetic engineering, and major investments in clean energy. They explicitly urge governments, especially the U.S., to abandon any “war on renewable energy” and accelerate the transition off fossil fuels. As climate scientist and SASB member Inez Fung explains, the priority is steep emissions cuts. “Governments should ramp up the wide deployment of … clean energy technologies,” she says, and restore a “science-based climate policy” by robustly trackingemissions and impacts. In other words, the same cooperation we lack-on trade treaties or arms control-must be forged for climate: data sharing, green technology partnerships, and multilateral climate finance.
But the window for action is narrowing. The Bulletin’s message is that we cannot treat climate as a side issue or wait for a nuclear war to focus; these risks are interacting now. In the words of Inez Fung at the January announcement, the planet’s climate is like a fevered metabolism: “I feel like my fever is going to put the planet close to ICU.” Crucially, she warned, even monitoring systems are under threat: in many countries, key climate observatories and data programs are being cut back.That metaphor of a sick Earth-close to critical condition-captures why Bulletin scientists see climate change as a silent hand pushing the Doomsday Clock forward. The longer we delay serious cuts to emissions and stronger international climate cooperation, the closer the hands inch towards midnight, inch by dangerous inch.
References:
https://wmo.int/publication-series/state-of-global-climate-2024
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