84% of Indian Districts Experiencing Extreme Heat, 70% Also Witnessing Erratic Rainfall: Study

A new study has found that 84% of Indian districts are extreme heatwave hotspots, with 70% also experiencing erratic rainfall, creating a dangerous combination of high heat and intense humidity during monsoon months. The report, titled “Managing Monsoons in a Warming Climate,” was released by IPE Global and Esri India in partnership with the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). It highlights an extended summer season in India, which now overlaps with the monsoon, leading to extreme rainfall and heatwave events.

This pioneering study evaluates heat risks at the district level and analyzes extreme rainfall trends, while also correlating the two. Researchers developed a region-specific temperature threshold roster spanning multiple decades (1993–2022) to provide a clearer picture of temperature and rainfall anomalies over time.

Dual Impact of Extreme Heat and Rainfall on India

As global temperatures rise and atmospheric humidity increases, heatwaves have become more frequent and intense, especially in tropical regions like India. The report projects that if current trends continue, 8 out of 10 people in India could be affected by heatwaves by 2036. It also underscores how rising temperatures are altering the monsoon season, extending summer-like conditions, and exacerbating extreme rainfall events. Through a detailed regional assessment, the study identifies heatwave hotspots across India and offers actionable recommendations to mitigate the socio-economic and environmental risks posed by these extreme weather events, pinpointing specific district-level hotspots in coastal, plain, and hilly regions most affected by heatwaves.

“The current trend of catastrophic extreme heat and rainfall events results from a 0.6 degrees Celsius temperature rise in the last century. El Niño is gaining momentum and making its early presence felt globally,” said Abinash Mohanty, head of climate change and sustainability practice at IPE Global, and the author of the study. “These numbers speak volumes. Embracing hyper-granular risk assessments and establishing climate-risk observatories should become a national imperative to safeguard Indian agriculture, industry, and large-scale infrastructural projects from the vagaries of climate change,” he added.

The study found that heatwaves in India, especially in the summer months (March to May), could become more frequent and severe, potentially affecting up to 500 million people by 2050. Projections suggest that if the pledges made in the 2015 Paris Agreement are not fulfilled, global temperatures could rise beyond 3°C by the end of the 21st century, causing catastrophic impacts in India.

Regional Effects

The northeastern, eastern, central, and northwestern parts of India are expected to experience more heatwaves in the coming decades. The Indian subcontinent could face severe consequences such as increased dry spells, intensification of extreme rainfall, and a rise in cyclonic events if global temperatures exceed 3°C.

District-Level Assessment

The study conducted a detailed regional climatological assessment to map heatwave hotspots and understand their correlation with extreme rainfall events. Using spatial and temporal modeling, it identified district-level hotspots and conducted a seasonal climatological analysis to detect micro-seasonal variations.

Empirical Evidence

India is experiencing an extended summer season beyond the traditional monsoon months (June to September), with summer-like conditions persisting. More than 84% of Indian districts are identified as heatwave hotspots, with 70% of these experiencing recurrent erratic rainfall over the past three decades during the monsoon season. Over 55% of land use and land cover changes in India are concentrated in these hotspot districts, primarily due to anthropogenic activities.

Recommendations

The study emphasizes the urgent need for India to develop national and subnational strategies to manage the increasing risks of heatwaves and extreme rainfall events. Key recommendations include establishing a Heat Risk Observatory (HRO) to map heat risks and provide a decision-making toolkit for district and city-level policymakers, enabling them to identify, assess, and project chronic and acute heat risks at a hyper-granular level. 

Additionally, adopting blended finance strategies through risk financing instruments is essential to mitigate heat risk and extreme rainfall events by integrating public and private capital to assess financial risks associated with monsoonal variability. Appointing Heat-Risk Champions within district disaster management committees is also recommended to enhance citizen engagement and drive behavioral change, improving heatwave preparedness and resilience.

These comprehensive and proactive measures are crucial for safeguarding lives, livelihoods, and the economy as the climate continues to warm, ultimately building a resilient future for India.

References

https://www.esri.in/en-in/events/climate-action/addressing-climate-extremes/policy-brief

https://theprint.in/environment/84-of-indian-districts-prone-to-heatwaves-most-of-these-also-see-extreme-rainfall-events/2212008

Banner image: Canva