How the Amazon Rainforest is reaching its Tipping Point in a rapidly warming world

By Suja Mary James

The “lungs of the planet” are on the verge of extinction. 

The Amazon rainforest, known for its rich biodiversity, has around 76 billion tonnes of carbon stored within it. The trees in the Amazon release 20 billion tonnes of water into the atmosphere per day, thus enacting a critical role in global and regional carbon and water cycles. 

But today, this forest is shrinking at an alarming rate.

Importance of the Amazon Rainforest

The world’s largest tropical rainforest- covering more than 2.5 million square miles of land stretching across Guyana, Suriname, French Guinea, Guyana, Peru, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Bolivia- is a reservoir for more than 10% of the world’s species and home to many indigenous groups. Around 18% of vascular plant species, 14% of birds, 9% of mammals, 8% of amphibians, and 18% of tropical fish on Earth are found in the Amazon. It is believed that around 90% of its biodiversity is still unidentified and has very high levels of endemism. According to a World Wildlife Fund report, called the “Living Amazon Report 2022”, around 47 million people depend on Amazon which includes 2.2 million indigenous people from 51 distinct groups, of which 66 are living in isolation or initial contact.

Contribution to Climate regulation

The Amazon assists in regulating the earth’s climate. The ecological structure of the biome and its location in South America’s equatorial region, between the Atlantic Ocean and the Andes- generate a  hydrological engine of favorable climatic conditions across the continent. Forests can be thought of as “giant air conditioners” because they act as a biological pump to draw water from the soil and raise it through evapotranspiration to a higher altitude, forming the Amazon’s ‘flying rivers’ where it condenses and becomes rain thus regulating the energy and moisture transfer between the atmosphere and the land. 

The Amazon’s hydrological functions and its ecosystems contribute to stabilizing global climate as they have the ability to produce 150-200 billion tons of carbon (equivalent to 367 to 733 GtCO2) in their soils and vegetation. Losing the Amazon is equal to losing the chance to achieve the 1.5°C climate goal since the carbon budget needed for the planet to maintain that level of warming has been estimated to be between 360 and 510 GtCO2.

Threats being faced by the Rainforest

Unfortunately, the untamed wilderness endures a variety of pressures and threats both to its biodiversity and to the traditional communities. The participation of civil society and government in environmental protection and the pursuit of sustainable development is still dubious, as economic gain prioritizes over conservation.

The fragile ecosystem has witnessed numerous wildfires and deforestation, mostly linked to human intervention. Massive farming and ranching, infrastructure and urban growth, unsustainable logging, and mining, along with climate change have accelerated forest deterioration. As per the Brazilian National Space and Research Institute (INPE), between August 1, 2021, to July 31, 2022- around 11,568 square kilometers (1,466 square miles) of forest land have been cleared and around 33.116 fire hotspots were identified.

It is estimated that 18 % of the Amazon’s forests have been converted for other uses (like cattle ranching, agriculture, land grabbing, and fires) and an additional 17% degrading. The RAISG report claims, agricultural activity is directly responsible for 84% of Amazon deforestation (encroachment and forest fires are directly linked to the expansion of agricultural frontiers), while deforestation from cattle ranching in the Amazon rainforest is said to be responsible for nearly 2% of annual global CO2 emissions. 

The former president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, had implemented policies that undercut many of Brazil’s environmental protection and monitoring agencies, which resulted in an increase in deforestation and fires in the Amazon Rainforest. Under Bolsonaro, the Brazilian Amazon experienced its highest deforestation rate in 15 years. Fires in the Amazon are intentionally started after deforestation to clear the ground for cattle ranching and soy farming. More than 44,000 hectares (109,000 acres) of forest were burned in Brazil in 2021. According to a 2021 study, “a disruption in the balance of growth and decay and fires” are primary reasons for the Brazilian Amazon’s higher carbon emissions than absorption.

Losing the elasticity to regenerate

Decades of deforestation and fires in the Amazon combined with the global climate crisis have extended the dry season and increased the frequency of megadroughts, creating a feedback loop that damages forests. Large areas may turn into sparsely wooded savannah, which is far less effective at removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere than tropical forests.

Mining and Oil extraction is another driving force for deforestation and degradation. Around 17% of the forest area is used for mining and 9.4% (80 million hectares) is occupied by oil fields. It was found that the temperature over these regions has increased to 1.2 degrees. The report concluded that compared to model estimates from around 2007, it is one of the planet’s most vulnerable areas, with over 90% of species exposed to temperatures that have never been experienced before.

Mining and agriculture pollution and the introduction of non-native species have significantly disrupted freshwater ecosystems. Due to this, around one-third of the species are threatened by extinction, and 80 have already been declared extinct. An article published on Earth.org revealed that around eight indigenous species- the Golden Lion Tamarin, Jaguar, Amazon River Dolphin, Giant Otter, Uakari Monkey, Hyacinth Macaw, South American Tapi, and Poison Dart Frog are considered endangered species and immediate measures need to be taken before it is too late. 

Throughout the 847 million hectares of the Amazonian region, 26% of its forests show signs of deforestation and degradation, 20% have experienced irreversible loss, and 6% are severely degraded. According to INPE, around 12.2 million square kilometers (4.7 million square miles) of the rainforest were cleared last year. Currently, there are more than 600 infrastructure projects along Amazonian rivers in operation, along with 20 proposed road projects and more than 400 operational or proposed dams.

Due to this, the ecosystem is getting close to its “tipping point,” at which time it will likely change from a wet rainforest to a dry savanna and will no longer be able to support its current biodiversity. A noticeable change to savannization is seen in Bolivia and Brazil’s Amazon region- accounting for 90% of transformation-  in Peru, Colombia,  Venezuela, and Ecuador.

Turning into a Carbon Source

A recent study revealed that due to significant forest loss, the Amazon forest is now acting as a carbon source which means that the forest itself is emitting carbon as a result of deforestation and climate change. But certain regions managed by Indigenous people show strong net carbon sinks from 2001-2021, removing a net 340 million tonnes of CO2 each year. 

Researchers led by scientists from INPE measured concentrations of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide between 2010 and 2018 using 590 airplane flyovers up to 4,500m above the Amazon. It was found that the total carbon emission was greater in the eastern parts of the Amazon than it is in the western regions due to high population centers thereby increasing logging and cattle ranching over the eastern Amazon, particularly in the southeast.  It is because the trees show signs of “loss of resilience” as they take more time to recover from the effects of drought, fire, and deforestation. And if it is continuous, it would trigger “dieback’’. It’s not clear when that critical point might be reached, but once it is reached the Amazon will become a savannah, a very diverse habitat with a mix of grassland and trees.

Much of the carbon stored in the Amazon would be released into the atmosphere. This would increase temperature and moisture stress, especially during the dry seasons. The ability of the rainforests to store and absorb carbon has been severely impacted by the severity of dry seasons as well as higher rates of deforestation and wildfires. Scientists estimate that deforesting 20% of the Amazon would release more than 90 billion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere which will transform the forest into a savannah and disrupt rainfall across South America. Bolivia and Brazil, the nations most impacted by and transformed by the Amazon, which exhibit clear signs of these modifications. In Bolivia, the amount of rainfall has reduced by 17% while the temperature has increased by more than 1 degree Celsius. 

Fate of the indigenous groups

Not only the flora and fauna but the indigenous groups too are facing serious challenges due to the Amazon Rainforest’s current state. It is estimated that the first human settlements were about 32,000 to 39,000 years ago. Since then, inhabitants have created lives that successfully balance the advantages and limitations of rainforests. 

There are uncontacted Indigenous groups (known as “Indigenous people in voluntary isolation”) still exist in all nine of Amazonia’s countries, mostly concentrated in Brazil, and are threatened by illegal and intentional fire. Due to their complete reliance on the forest for all of their requirements, including food, medicine, and shelter, “Uncontacted Indigenous people” are among those who are most at risk from deforestation and fires. Deforestation may also compel them to leave their homes and come into touch with people from outside their territory. This entails exposing them to infections against which they have little or no immunity.

According to Survival International, four uncontacted groups (The uncontacted Awá people in Bananal Island, the Awá of Maranhão state in the Arariboia Indigenous Reserve, the Uru Eu Wau Wau Indigenous Territory in Rondônia state, the Ituna Itatá Territory in Pará state) has been facing serious wildfire threats since 2020. Also, the fire in Brazil’s Pantanal wetlands combined with deforestation caused increased erosion from denuded lands which resulted in water contamination due to excess organic matter and ashes.

For centuries, the Yanomami group has inhabited a vast area of forest (border between Brazil and Venezuela), relying on fishing, hunting, and fruit gathering. They are at serious risk of losing their lands, culture, and traditions.  Even though Yanomami territory is grouped as a national protected area, there are more than 20,000 illegal gold miners (known locally as garimpeiros). They extract gold and other valuable minerals and cut down forests. The process by which gold is separated from grit also pollutes rivers with mercury, thus exposing the tribes to deadly diseases like mercury poisoning and child malnutrition due to changing traditional diet added to the risk of malaria as a result of stagnant water left by the garimpeiros. 

According to  Joenia Wapichana, the only indigenous woman elected to the Brazilian Congress, the destruction wrought by the garimpeiros and the wealthy economic interests poses a threat to biodiversity as well as the very existence of indigenous life. “Both loggers and miners who work for individuals with significant economic clout have become more numerous, and organized crime is starting to spread throughout the region”. According to Wapichana, the indigenous people are in danger of going extinct as a result of the deteriorating environmental and health conditions. 

“If the current trend of deforestation continues, the Amazon as we know it today would not reach 2025,” stated RAISG’s report, based on the analysis of data from 1985 to 2020. The protection of the Amazon requires a combination of strategies and approaches that balance the needs of conservation with the growth of the nations that make up the region. As amazon forests are vital for our existence, a robust vision of sustainability and a development model that does not involve deforestation or conversion should be implemented.